| Citation: |
Wansuo Duan, Rong Feng, Lichao Yang, Lin Jiang. A NEW APPROACH TO DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING AND CLIMATE PREDICTION[J]. Journal of Applied Analysis & Computation, 2022, 12(3): 1007-1021. doi: 10.11948/20220098
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A NEW APPROACH TO DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
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Abstract
Based on the review of nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) for dealing with the most disturbing model error and the optimal forcing vector (OFV) for neutralizing model error effect, the NFSV-data assimilation (NFSV-DA) approach was reinterpreted as neutralizing combined effect of model errors and initial errors in predictions. Then the calculation of adjoint-related gradient was derived for solving the NFSV-DA. With the applications to El Ni?o and tropical cyclone predictabilities, the usefulness of the NFSV-DA was emphasized for improving prediction skill of weather and climate. Furthermore, how to further consummate the NFSV-DA was discussed and future works were prospected. It is finally expected that the NFSV-DA becomes operational and greatly increases the prediction level of weather and climate.
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Keywords:
- Data assimilation /
- optimization problem /
- prediction error /
- predictability
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References
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Wansuo Duan, Rong Feng, Lichao Yang, Lin Jiang. A NEW APPROACH TO DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING AND CLIMATE PREDICTION[J]. Journal of Applied Analysis & Computation, 2022, 12(3): 1007-1021. doi: 10.11948/20220098
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- Figure 1. The winter SST patterns of CP-El Niño in the (a) observations, (b) ICM predictions and (c) NFSV-ICM predictions, where the lead time is six months. The PCC is the spatial correlation coefficient between the observation and prediction. The NFSV-ICM, compared with the ICM, reproduced successfully CP-El Niño events of concerned much well. This figure is from [32].
- Figure 2. The observed SST anomalies from January 1st, 2019 to December 30th, 2019 and their predictions made by NFSV-ICM. (a) Observations and (b) predictions. The predictions captured the dominant mode of the observed SST anomalies, which exhibited a CP-El Niño event.
- Figure 3. The intensity forecasts of nine TCs the NFSV-DA. Red lines represent the observed TC intensities measured by the minimum SLP, black lines are for the reference forecasts, and the blue lines denote the forecasts made by the NSFV-tendency assimilation, which, compared to the reference forecasts, are much close to the observation. This figure is from Duan and Qin [8].
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Figure 4. TC rainfall (
$ > $ 0.5 mm; red color) at$ -6 $ h (a) and 0 h (b) in reference forecast, and at 6 h in the forecast made by the NFSV-DA (c) for the TC case Dujuan, respectively. The forecast made by the NFSV-DA presented the rainfall at 6 h, which did not appear in reference. This figure is from Qin et al. [29].